[FOTZeiss] Defunct NASA Satellite to Fall Friday

[Glenn A. Walsh]

The following is a good report, from Kent State University Professor Francis Graham, regarding the impending fall of a defunct NASA satellite on Friday (coincidentally, the Autumnal Equinox at 5:05 a.m. EDT) and the chances of debris hitting anyone. However, if debris would hit anyone, FEMA says it is ready:

http://www.space.com/13009-falling-nasa-satellite-uars-fema-response-plans.html

Here is Professor Graham's report:

Good Noon!
    The Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite, launched from the Space Shuttle September 12, 1991, will soon have its last orbit.   It's coming down. But it is as big as a bus, and just as heavy, and will not vaporize completely in the Earth's atmosphere.  In other words, it is coming down to the surface. This Friday, September 23,  after eleven days past 20 years in orbit. 
    Don't worry, if you have life insurance, if it hits you, your loved ones will be able to afford your burial after your close-casket ceremony. The odds of it hitting any one of the 7 billion people on this planet are only 1 in 3,200, NASA reports.  The odds of that person being specifically you are one in 7 billion times 3,200.  Unless you are in Antarctica.  There the odds are zero because it will not hit Antarctica.
    But this is not something to worry about unless you enjoy worrying. Almost any other manner of death this Friday is more probable.  But remember too: it will hit somewhere.
    The original orbit is:
ID: 21701
Int'l Code: 1991-063B
Perigee: 212.7 km
Apogee: 230.8 km
Inclination: 56.9°
Period: 88.8 min
Semi major axis: 6,592.7 km
Launch date: September 12, 1991  
 
    But it had been slowly decaying,  Don't forget too that the chances are 3 in 4 that it will strike water, specifically, the ocean, because the Earth is covered 3/4 by ocean.  NASA does not yet know specifically the impact footprint of this thing and has in fact shoved it over to FEMA.   
     I'll pass on more news as I get it.
     Right now (11:30 AM EDT Sept. 20) UARS is over Siberia heading over the Pacific.
 
Francis Graham
Kent State University
East Liverpool Ohio

gaw

Glenn A. Walsh, Project Director,
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